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Progress report on the preseason top 10
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Posted: January 29, 2009

Ah November, such a wonderfully simple time for college basketball fans. A time when we think we think we know how the next four months will unfold, a month when no one has ever won a championship, but we love to crown teams anyway.


The question back then wasn't, "Who will win this year?" but, "Who will get to stand at the runner-up podium during the coronation for North Carolina?"

Instead of having a seasonlong unanimous No. 1, next week will likely usher in the fifth different top-ranked team in the span of a month. So now seems as good a time as any to look back at the top 10 teams in the preseason Associated Press poll and where they stand now:

No. 1 North Carolina

Current ranking: 5

So maybe the Tar Heels aren't the invincible behemoth so many predicted. But the Carolina team that was predicted to unleash furious destruction upon the nation has yet to take the floor, and likely never will. Tyler Zeller has been all but officially shut down for the year, and the likelihood of Marcus Ginyard returning diminishes exponentially with each passing week. There isn't a team in the country that could lose what the Tar Heels have--namely an all-conference defensive player and vocal leader, and a 7-footer who can run the floor and shoot with range--and still be in contention. The Heels might be struggling with depth issues, but they're still the last team anyone would want to see in March.

No. 2 Connecticut

Current ranking: 2

The Huskies are as balanced as any team in the nation. Maybe Hasheem Thabeet hasn't made the strides many were hoping, but he's still an intimidating shot blocker. Frontcourt mate Jeff Adrien was the best player nobody ever talked about until a few weeks ago when everyone started talking about him. Point guard A.J. Price is returning to form after offseason knee surgery. Still, there's something unsettling about how often UConn can seem completely disinterested on the court. It remains to be seen whether the Huskies can maintain the right mental approach for six straight games in March. For now, the Huskies could follow the trend of teams that inherit the top spot only to immediately stumble with their toughest test to date looming next week. That of course is against...

No. 3 Louisville

Current ranking: 7

You wouldn't want to have an EKG chart that looks like the Cardinals' weekly movement in the polls, but right now you wouldn't want to be on the court with the Cards either. After a disastrous December, Louisville has looked like the best team in the country. It leads the nation in defensive efficiency and the offense is starting to come around thanks to dominating play from Terrence Williams and Earl Clark. The Cards have the Big East's best mix of defensive prowess and ability to push the pace, a combination that's wearing down opponents late in games.

No. 4 UCLA

Current ranking: 17

The Bruins were ranked this high purely on past success, a touted recruiting class and laundry. None of these are persuasive reasons and the Bruins are quickly sinking to a more appropriate area of the polls. This team simply lost too much, and is yet to beat a surefire tournament team. Its inability to close out games has cost the Bruins pole position in an unusually weak Pac-10.

No. 5 Pittsburgh

Current ranking: 3

The Panthers share the ball and play coordinated team defense about as well as anyone in the country. They allow a stingy 60 points per game and punish teams on the boards. But there have been common themes in the Panthers' two losses to Louisville and Villanova--poor outside shooting and foul trouble for DeJuan Blair. Pitt's starting five stacks up with anybody but the bench is thin, especially down low. This is the year the Panthers should finally bust through the Sweet 16 barrier, but only if Blair can stay on the floor.

No. 6 Michigan State

Current ranking: 9

The Spartans have been a different team since the return of Goran Suton, the 6-10 senior who can clog the lanes, crash the boards and occasionally step out and pop a 3 (9-of-15 this year). Kalin Lucas' ridiculous assist-to-turnover ratio has dipped a bit, but 3.3-to-1 is still fantastic. The Spartans lack a legitimate go-to scorer--only Lucas and Raymar Morgan average double figures. The Spartans, who found a way to lose at home to Northwestern, might fall again this year, but they won't be truly tested until March rolls around.

No. 7 Texas

Current ranking: 11

Somehow the Longhorns are still highly ranked, yet have gone mostly unnoticed. They still have significant ground to make up before they can challenge Oklahoma for Big 12 supremacy as they've merely been playing just well enough to win since losing to the Sooners. That's fine for keeping the Longhorns in the Big 12 title chase, but it's not the method for a sustained tournament run. Rick Barnes still can't settle on a frontcourt rotation, he can't seem to fill the point guard hole left by D.J. Augustin and the team can't find a dependable scorer to complement A.J. Abrams and Damion James.

No. 8 Duke

Current ranking: 1

No team has more glaring holes, and no team does a better job of covering them than the Blue Devils. Duke can be exploited by quick guards and deep, physical frontcourts. It's not much of a surprise that the first team Duke faced that features both of those would be the one to end its 10-game winning streak. Despite their deficiencies, it still took a last-second layup by the Demon Deacons to slay Duke on Wake's home court.

No. 9 Notre Dame

Current ranking: None

The Big East was bound to cannibalize one or two teams, but few expected it to be the Irish. The shocking loss to St. John's was the harbinger. In hindsight, maybe a top 10 ranking was a bit ambitious for this group. The Irish were blasted out of the second round last March and made no significant additions. They brought back Big East Player of the Year Luke Harangody (the reason for optimism), but the loss of Rob Kurz was underrated. Once teams started face-guarding Kyle McAlarney the moment he crossed midcourt, the Irish became an average team.

No. 10 Gonzaga

Current ranking: 20

The Zags have won six straight after nearly falling into the abyss when they followed a heart-breaking overtime loss to UConn with defeats to Portland State and Utah. They have a balanced scoring attack with six players averaging between 8.9 and 14.7 points, so they can sustain off nights from one or two scoring threats. Gonzaga will be the No. 6 or 7 seed that no contender wants to see.